Quick answer: On August 6, 2026, President Trump signed a Section 232 proclamation setting minimum import prices on solar equipment: 38 cents per watt for imported modules, 22 cents per watt for cells, plus a 15% duty on polysilicon derivatives. It takes effect December 4, 2026. For a typical 7.2 kW California home system, we estimate the direct panel cost impact at roughly $600 to $1,100, a 3% to 5% project increase, not the 40% jump the headlines suggest. Systems installed on equipment already in the country before December 4 are priced on pre-tariff inventory.
Key takeaways
- The new floor price on imported modules (38 cents per watt) is about 40% above the current US median module price of 27.1 cents per watt. But panels are only about one fifth of what you pay for a home installation, so the project-level impact is far smaller.
- The tariffs start December 4, 2026. Equipment already imported before that date is not affected, and California distributors are stocking up now.
- This lands on top of a bigger change: the 30% federal residential tax credit (Section 25D) already expired on December 31, 2025. The tariff is the second cost headwind in 12 months, and it is the smaller of the two.
- Batteries are not directly covered by this proclamation. Under NEM 3.0, the battery half of your project math does not change.
- If you were already planning to go solar, installing on pre-tariff inventory this fall is the cheapest window you are likely to see for several years.
I have been installing solar in California for three decades, and I will tell you what I told our team the morning this order was signed: the headline number and the homeowner number are two different numbers. National coverage is quoting a 40% price jump. That figure is real, but it applies to the imported panel itself, not to your project. Your project is mostly labor, racking, inverters, wiring, permits, and overhead, and none of that is imported polysilicon. Below is what the order actually says, what it does to a real California quote, and how I would time a project if I were a homeowner in SCE or PG&E territory right now.
What did Trump’s new solar tariff order actually do?
The August 6, 2026 proclamation, issued under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, sets minimum import prices (MIPs) on polysilicon and everything made from it, plus a 15% ad valorem duty on polysilicon derivative products. If an importer brings equipment in below the floor price, Customs charges a tariff equal to the gap. The full text is on whitehouse.gov.
Minimum import prices under the August 2026 Section 232 proclamation
| Product | Minimum import price | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Polysilicon | $21 per kilogram | The raw refined silicon |
| Ingots and wafers | $100 per kilogram | Silicon blocks and the thin slices cut from them |
| Solar cells | $0.22 per watt | The component that converts light to electricity |
| Solar modules | $0.38 per watt | The finished panel that goes on your roof |
Source: Presidential proclamation, whitehouse.gov, August 6, 2026
Two more provisions matter for pricing. First, the order replaces the older safeguard tariff on cells and modules from Trump’s first term, which expired in February 2026. Second, manufacturers that commit to building US factories by January 2029 can import equipment tariff-free while they build, which is designed to keep supply flowing during the transition.
The rationale is national security: polysilicon feeds both solar panels and semiconductors, and the US share of global polysilicon production has fallen from 50% in 2005 to under 2% in 2024, according to the Commerce Department findings cited in the proclamation.
When do the new solar tariffs start?
December 4, 2026, at 12:01 a.m. Eastern. Equipment entered into the US before that date is not subject to the minimum prices or the 15% duty.
That roughly four-month runway is the single most important fact in this article for a homeowner. Importers and distributors are moving inventory into US warehouses now, and the proclamation even directs Commerce to watch for stockpiling by importers. For you, the practical translation is simple: a system installed this fall is built from panels that entered the country at pre-tariff prices. A system quoted in spring 2027 probably is not.
How much will the tariffs raise solar panel prices?
The floor price on imported modules is about 40% above today’s US median module price. Industry pricing data from Anza Renewables puts the current median US module price at 27.1 cents per watt, against the new 38 cent import floor. Modules assembled in US factories from imported cells run about 30 cents per watt today, and those imported cells now carry a 22 cent floor of their own. Fully domestic modules, US cells included, run about 47 cents per watt.
[CHART: bar chart, “Solar module prices vs the new import floor (cents per watt, 2026)”, x-axis: category, y-axis: cents per watt, data: Current US median (all modules) 27.1, US-assembled with imported cells 30, New import floor 38, Fully domestic modules 47, source: Anza Renewables pricing data and the August 6, 2026 proclamation]
The takeaway from that chart: the import floor lands between today’s US-assembled price and the fully domestic price, which is exactly where it was designed to land.
Whether real-world prices rise all the way to the floor depends on supply. The US now has about 10.6 gigawatts of domestic cell manufacturing capacity per the Solar Energy Industries Association, from factories like Qcells in Georgia, and module assembly capacity has grown enough that the US is essentially self-sufficient in module production. Domestic supply, pre-tariff inventory, and the factory exemption program will all blunt the increase. My honest expectation for the residential market: module costs land somewhere between today’s prices and the floor through mid-2027, then settle as US ingot and wafer capacity comes online.
What do the tariffs mean for your solar project cost in California?
For a typical California home installation, the direct impact is roughly $600 to $1,100, which is about 3% to 5% of the project, not 40%. Here is the math, worked all the way through.
Take a 7.2 kW system in Fresno on PG&E, a very typical NRG install. At the middle of the current California installed price range of $2.40 to $3.25 per watt, that project runs about $20,200 before any incentives.
Worked example: tariff impact on a 7.2 kW California system
| Line item | Pre-tariff (today) | Post-tariff estimate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modules (7,200 W) | $1,950 at 27.1¢/W | $2,740 at the 38¢/W floor | +$790 |
| Everything else: labor, inverter, racking, permits, overhead | ~$18,250 | ~$18,250 | $0 |
| Total project | ~$20,200 | ~$21,000 | +$790 (about 4%) |
Source: Anza Renewables module pricing; MIP levels from the August 6, 2026 proclamation. Assumes full pass-through to the import floor, which is the worst case.
Panels and inverters together are only about a fifth of what a California homeowner pays for solar. The rest is labor, balance of system, permitting, and business costs, and a tariff on polysilicon touches none of it. That is why a 40% panel increase becomes a roughly 4% project increase.
One honest caveat: distributors do not always pass through costs politely. In past tariff rounds we saw some equipment markups run ahead of the actual duty for a few months before competition pulled them back. That is a market behavior problem, not a tariff math problem, and it is another argument for buying from an installer who shows you the per-watt breakdown. It is also worth remembering why the payback still works: California residential rates averaged 33.7 cents per kWh on PG&E, 34.5 cents on SCE, and 45.7 cents on SDG&E as of March 2026, per the CPUC Public Advocates Office quarterly rates report. An $800 equipment increase is about two to three months of the average California electric bill.
Should you install solar before December 4, 2026?
If you were already planning a system, yes, this fall is the window. If you were not, the tariff alone is not a reason to rush a $20,000 decision.
Here is the timing picture as I see it from inside the industry:
- Now through late November 2026: Systems are installed from pre-tariff inventory. Pricing is at 2026 levels. This is the known-cost window.
- December 2026 through mid-2027: Pre-tariff stock runs down at different rates for different distributors. Quotes get less predictable. Some equipment lines see increases, others do not.
- Late 2027 and beyond: New US ingot, wafer, and cell factories ramp under the exemption program. Prices stabilize, likely somewhat above today’s levels.
The bigger context is that the tariff is the second and smaller of two changes. The 30% federal residential credit under Section 25D ended for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025, per the IRS Residential Clean Energy Credit rules as amended by the 2025 tax law. On our example system, the expired credit was worth about $6,000. The tariff adds about $800. Anyone telling you the tariff is the reason to panic-buy has the two numbers backwards.
What has not changed is the reason solar pencils in California at all: utility rates that run roughly double the national average and keep climbing. The savings math on a purchased solar system in 2026 is driven by the rate you avoid paying, and SDG&E customers at 45.7 cents per kWh did not get any relief in this proclamation.
Do the new tariffs change the math on batteries?
No. The proclamation covers polysilicon and its derivatives: ingots, wafers, cells, and modules. Home batteries are lithium-based products and are not on the annex lists.
That matters because under NEM 3.0, the battery is where much of your savings actually comes from. PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E pay export rates that average roughly a quarter of retail for midday solar, so the winning design stores your afternoon production and discharges it during the 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. peak window instead of selling it cheap. If the tariff nudges you toward a slightly smaller panel array, pairing it with battery storage protects the savings rate far more than an extra kilowatt of panels would. Separate battery tariffs on Chinese lithium cells exist under other trade actions, which is one more reason we quote the full system rather than panels alone.
FAQ
Do the new tariffs apply to solar systems already installed? No. The minimum import prices apply to equipment entering the US on or after December 4, 2026. A system already on your roof, or installed this fall from existing inventory, is unaffected.
Will my quote go up 40%? No. The 40% figure compares the new import floor to the current median panel price. Panels are only about one fifth of a residential project’s cost, so the worst-case project impact is in the 3% to 5% range, roughly $600 to $1,100 on a typical 7.2 kW California system.
Is there still a federal tax credit to combine with pre-tariff pricing? Not for purchased systems. The 30% Section 25D residential credit expired December 31, 2025. Leased and PPA systems can still capture a federal credit on the leasing company’s side through 2027, which can show up as lower payments. We walk through the tradeoffs in our lease vs buy comparison, and a lease is genuinely worth considering for some households in 2026.
Do the tariffs affect batteries or EV chargers? Not this proclamation. It covers polysilicon products only: raw polysilicon, ingots, wafers, cells, and modules. Batteries and chargers fall under separate trade rules that did not change on August 6.
Could the tariffs be struck down like the 2025 tariffs were? Unlikely. These were issued under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, the same national security authority behind the steel and aluminum tariffs, which have repeatedly held up in court. Plan as if they are permanent.
Will American-made panels get more expensive too? Somewhat, indirectly. US module factories still import most of their cells and wafers, and those inputs now carry price floors of their own. Fully domestic modules already sell for about 47 cents per watt. Expect domestic prices to firm up rather than drop until US wafer and cell capacity catches up.